No Denying Ignatieff's Popularity

Whatever happens in Montreal, there is a significant contingent in the Liberal Party who supports Ignatieff's leadership. If the current trend continues through to Sunday, it will be clear that Michael Ignatieff enjoys the most first choice support among Liberal Party members. The next question will be who will be going where once the first ballot is counted.

As it stands it is a three and half way race:

Ignatieiff (Front Runner)
Rae (Strong Second counting ex-officio support)
Dion (Third)
Kennedy (Gerard wins the darkhorse award, although I am sure he wanted to do better, not to threat, Joe Clark and Dalton McGuinty managed to come from similar positions and eventually became the winner)

Dion's poor performance in Quebec could raise questions about his ability to carry the province.

Brison carries his own province and will be a hot ticket for support. An old Red Tory, I can't see him going to Rae. It will be either Dion or Ignatieff.

Dryden didn't do as well as expected, especially in Quebec. Still will carry a lot of ex-officio support when he makes his decision who to back.

The other candidates will examine their options and will very well play a big role in the outcome in Montreal.

Scenario:

Ignatieff will need at least one of the candidates to go to him and bring their delegates as well to win the convention.

Rae will need two candidates, and they will have to bring a substantial portion of their delegates to win him the convention.

Dion will need something similar, and also needs ex-officio support as well.

Kennedy will need to press hard to get anyone who drops off the ballot. If he can pull it off, he stands a good chance of sticking around.

The New Liberal Leader Will Have the Historic Numbers on their Side.

Who will be the new Liberal Leader will not be known until December, but one thing
that the new leader will have on their side is the historic odds. Liberal leaders who are chosen while the party has been in opposition are generally more successful than party leaders who are chosen by the party while in power. With the first three leaders being disqualified as they were chosen by the caucas, and not the party faithful, throughout history the Liberal Leaders who were chosen while the party was in opposition have enjoyed far greater success at election time, than those picked while the party was governing.

Now one can argue that the parties were old and tired when they chose their leaders while serving in government, but Mr. St. Laurant and Mr. Trudeau managed to form majority governments directly after they were elected leader, and Mr. Pearson gave up a majority to the P.C.s in his firsts election. Overall Liberal Leaders who were picked while the party was in opposition have produced more majority governments and electoral victories.

Here is a little look at the numbers:

Chosen by Party while in opposition (Victories to elections)

Mackenzie King 6/7

Lester Pearson 2/4

Jean Chretien 3/3

Chosen by Party while in power:

Louis St. Laurent 2/3

*Pierre Trudeau 3/4

John Turner 0/2

Paul Martin 1/2

*1972 considered a tie

Eletoral winning rates:

6/11 54% In government when picked leader winning percentage.

11/14 79% In Opposition when picked leader winning percentage.

Majority Rate for governing Leaders: 5/12 42%

Majority Rate for opposition leaders: 8/14 57%

Condolezza getting Belinda's Sloppy Seconds.

Poll: a) Condokay b) Macleeza

The warm Atlantic winds seem to have brought more in than the tide. Looks like a beautiful relationship is in the air. One half is the Secretary of State of an Administration that to turned to the war on terror into pure imperialistic incompetence, and the other Canada's golden boy, who may have had carnal relations with a reptile according to Norm MacDonald.

Oh Condoleeza, if a marriage is emminent I don't recommend a prenup agreement. This individual has had trouble living up to written agreements, particularly ones written on dinner napkins.

What is the future? I hope it is a bright one. Also, I hope we don't have to experience boy loses girl, boy loses vote. We will asume that later will happen so the potatoe fields in Nova Scotia remain bare.

Proposed Name Change: The Regressive Conservative Party

The Regressive Conservative Party is a term coined by Allan Fotheringham in his 1983 book "Look Ma, No Hands", and I think it is an excellent name to apply to Social Credit/Reform/Alliance/Neo Cons/Harpocrit Party of today. The name is perfect, they will now have an acronym, the RCs and finally have a name that truly applies to their way of thinking. This new name fits in so many ways.

1. Harper not attending the Aids conference. Somebody found a memo from the White House from 1985 from now Supreme Court Justice John Roberts saying that aids can still be transferred from casual contact. Makes sense now not to attend the conference.

2. Reneging on green house gas problems. The world is not fragile, and we need to allow our own people to save ten cents on a coffee, so we can't give 1.5 million to a third world nation to help them improve their emissions standards. By the way we will have to continue to destroy your ecosystems, because now that Canadians are saving ten cents on their coffee, they are going to need more of it.

3. Copying economic formulas that have proven to have failed. Why does this government think that we need to mimic everything the United States does? The way the U.S's fiscal situation goes, in about ten years Bob Geldof will host a charity concert with proceeds going to their treasury. Reganonomics and Thatcherism were pure failures, and any right wing economist would tell you that. The Bush Administration is currently applying these policies to no avail. They are still running and huge deficit, and the debt doesn't seem to be going away, plus their education system is a mess and they are showing no signs of moving forward with technology. It is time to look to Ireland, Germany, France and China, where government investments in education and infrastructure are turning them into economic power houses. The elephant is looking old and grey, and yes it could still roll over and squash us, but I would look out for the several cheetahs that are brushing past us.

4. Ending government cronyism. Appointing an unelected Senator to cabinet. Using a political convention to rip off taxpayers. Cabinet Ministers who still have financial interest in companies that pertain directly to their portfolio. M.P.s taking in hockey games in corporate boxes. Former staffers receiving $300,000 government contracts.

So as you can see this party's record in government truly deserves the name Regressive Conservative Party, and I feel at their next policy convention in which they rip off taxpayers, they bring this name change to the floor and make it official.

Does Harper Do Anything that Isn't Trying to get him Cheap Votes?

Our current Prime Minister likes to mess with people's emotions. He simply picks simple little issues that cause people to react, and does it simply just to advance a hidden agenda. The funny thing is that he is so preoccupied with this constituency, that he fears looking moderate even though his core supporters don't really care, they just want to see him be successful. That or he is incredibly sensitive and worried that if he attends events like the Aids Conference, and gets heckled. Poor baby, takes you back to your days at North Toronto Collegiate when those progressive minded moderates teased you, or as they were called then "jocks".
If Michael Ignatieff wins the Liberal Leadership, Mr. Harper will be faced with an actual vision for the country, not one that saves 10 cents on a cup of coffee, or simply adding numbers to legislation released by the previous government. "But he lived in the U.S. for so long!" Well Mr. Harper, why don't you take a polygraph test saying that if you were offered tenure at Harvard, you wouldn't even have considered taking it. Sorry Eastern U.S. universities don't buy into your back woods U of Calgary crap, not even Yale where your hero Dubya brought academic incompetence to new levels.

Now his coalition with the separtists has backfired, as they will support him on the softwood sell out, preventing an election before the Liberals have their convention to pick a new leader. Maybe he can come up with something else before then to give him a microwave majority.

Oh yes, his supporters who love to surf these pages to pick a fight with progressive minds like myself, reminding me of the polls and the sponsorship program. Well your boy's approval ratings are at the lowest for any Prime Minister before his one year anniversary since Joe Clark, a person your boy holds nothing but disdain for. Perhaps this disdain could be his undoing.