No Denying Ignatieff's Popularity

Whatever happens in Montreal, there is a significant contingent in the Liberal Party who supports Ignatieff's leadership. If the current trend continues through to Sunday, it will be clear that Michael Ignatieff enjoys the most first choice support among Liberal Party members. The next question will be who will be going where once the first ballot is counted.

As it stands it is a three and half way race:

Ignatieiff (Front Runner)
Rae (Strong Second counting ex-officio support)
Dion (Third)
Kennedy (Gerard wins the darkhorse award, although I am sure he wanted to do better, not to threat, Joe Clark and Dalton McGuinty managed to come from similar positions and eventually became the winner)

Dion's poor performance in Quebec could raise questions about his ability to carry the province.

Brison carries his own province and will be a hot ticket for support. An old Red Tory, I can't see him going to Rae. It will be either Dion or Ignatieff.

Dryden didn't do as well as expected, especially in Quebec. Still will carry a lot of ex-officio support when he makes his decision who to back.

The other candidates will examine their options and will very well play a big role in the outcome in Montreal.

Scenario:

Ignatieff will need at least one of the candidates to go to him and bring their delegates as well to win the convention.

Rae will need two candidates, and they will have to bring a substantial portion of their delegates to win him the convention.

Dion will need something similar, and also needs ex-officio support as well.

Kennedy will need to press hard to get anyone who drops off the ballot. If he can pull it off, he stands a good chance of sticking around.