The New Liberal Leader Will Have the Historic Numbers on their Side.

Who will be the new Liberal Leader will not be known until December, but one thing
that the new leader will have on their side is the historic odds. Liberal leaders who are chosen while the party has been in opposition are generally more successful than party leaders who are chosen by the party while in power. With the first three leaders being disqualified as they were chosen by the caucas, and not the party faithful, throughout history the Liberal Leaders who were chosen while the party was in opposition have enjoyed far greater success at election time, than those picked while the party was governing.

Now one can argue that the parties were old and tired when they chose their leaders while serving in government, but Mr. St. Laurant and Mr. Trudeau managed to form majority governments directly after they were elected leader, and Mr. Pearson gave up a majority to the P.C.s in his firsts election. Overall Liberal Leaders who were picked while the party was in opposition have produced more majority governments and electoral victories.

Here is a little look at the numbers:

Chosen by Party while in opposition (Victories to elections)

Mackenzie King 6/7

Lester Pearson 2/4

Jean Chretien 3/3

Chosen by Party while in power:

Louis St. Laurent 2/3

*Pierre Trudeau 3/4

John Turner 0/2

Paul Martin 1/2

*1972 considered a tie

Eletoral winning rates:

6/11 54% In government when picked leader winning percentage.

11/14 79% In Opposition when picked leader winning percentage.

Majority Rate for governing Leaders: 5/12 42%

Majority Rate for opposition leaders: 8/14 57%