"Anybody But" Campaigns unusually turn out to be party cancer.

As the Liberal Party of Canada prepares to pick it's new leader, it appears that an "anybody but" is present, and not even centered on one candidate, but three. Ontario Liberals feel that "Anybody but Rae" holds some zest because so many of them fought tooth and nail against him in the 80's and 90's. "Anybody but Volpe" because he managed to find a loophole in the donor rules which may not have been unethical, but in the end legal under current law. Finally, Michael Ignatieff, with "front runner syndrome".

Let's look back to any but campaigns, and what electoral result they produced.

Progressive Conservatives 1976- Anybody but Wagner, former Quebec Liberal, not another Prime Minister from Quebec, too right wing.

Results: Joe Clark emerges leader and becomes P.M. only to blow it all nine months later. Fortunately Mr. Wagner didn't live to see it.

Ontario Liberals 1976- Anybody but David Peterson- Too right wing, too Toronto (even though his riding is in London). Party settles on Dr. Stuart Smith.

Result:

Dr. Smith goes on to lose to Bill Davis twice, while Peterson delivers the first Liberal Government in Ontario in 42 years nine years later. Then of course he calls an early election in 1990, and we all remember the results. Peterson also faced a similar opposition in 1982 in his successful bid for the party leadership.

Progressive Conservatives 1983- Anybody but Joe Clark- Brian Mulroney arrives in Ottawa with less than a third of the party's support on the first ballot, and walks out the winner. Then goes on to form two majority governments for the Tories with a shaky coalition, but with a price. The party is reduced to two seats in 1993, and then dies ten years later. Also reinvigorated both Quebec and Alberta separatism at the same time, who would have thunk it.

Federal NDP 1995- Anybody but Svend Robinson

The second place candidate Lorne Nystrom drops out to support the third place candidate Alexa McDonough in an ultimate gang up. I have to hand it though to Ms. McDonough, she didn't allow for the reins of the government to be handed over to Stephen Harper during her leadership.

Ontario Liberals 1996, Anybody but Gerard Kennedy- Too Toronto, too left wing, not been a Liberal Long Enough.

Fast forward to 1999, Liberals under Dalton McGuinty are trounced but Mike Harris, sending the province back twenty years. Dalton eventually becomes Premier and proves to be an effective leader, but the damage has already been done.

Gang up campaigns that what if only they had succeeded.

Federal Liberals 1984- Anybody but Turner- Three dropped out leadership candidates would be in Jean Chretien box during the second ballot, but that wouldn't be enough to stop the "optionless", "bum patter" from becoming party leader.

Federal Conservatives 2003- Anybody but MacKay

Poised to become the official opposition in the next election, and possibly form a government thereafter, Mr. MacKay sells out the party of John A. MacDonald to the Social Credit leftovers who were already about to become extinct. Mr. Orchard tried and failed.

4 Comments:

At 12:40 AM , Blogger Léo Bourdon said...

Interesting analogy Peter... I could even extend it further, saying infighting have proven unsuccessfull... Trudeau vs Turner, Clark vs Mulroney, Turner vs Chrétien, Chrétien vs Martin.

 
At 1:55 AM , Blogger Vicky said...

notice that all the loosers were also supposed to be their respective party's Savior?

The anybody-but campaigns are just a last minute resort for thos who have become suddenly aware than they are loosing. A desperate grasp to that one last chance to win top seat.

Pitiful.
Go Iggy!

 
At 5:11 AM , Blogger S.K. said...

Unfortunately, your analysis is inconsistent. Some of the anybody buts got defeated and you propose the other candidate did badly. Some of them won and you propose they did badly and shouldn't have been picked. Hence, the anybody but campaigns were correct. Not much consistency in this analysis buddy. And you can't have an 'anybody but' campaign against three candidates. It just means that several of the options on the table right now are unacceptable, in fact most of the options. There are only two or three who would be acceptable to Liberals as a whole, are ready for the job and could win a general election. Its not any of the guys you emntioned.

 
At 4:34 PM , Blogger Yappa said...

Very interesting post.

I think in a few cases you confuse lack of support with "anything but" status... like Kennedy in the provincial leadership race, when he had no experience and was way too much a lightweight to be a serious challenger. I'd say his run was just a way to catapult himself into a cabinet position... if anything, the people who supported him might have been "anyone but" McGuinty.

It's always interesting how non-front runners win on late ballots, or how those who seem to have lots of support die on the convention floor. Remember Flora Macdonald in the '76 PC race? She seemed to have a real shot at winning - before the convention - but her supposed support vanished.

 

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