Defeated Candidates Support May Not guarantee Victory.

With Super Weekend now behind us, the shift now moves to what will happen on the convention floor in Montreal to determine the new leader. Political pundits across the country have predicted that a gang up against Ignatieff could happen in Montreal, and make either Bob Rae of Stephane Dion leader of the party. If the trend that began when the first three candidates dropped out continues, who will be the next leader will be uncertain until the last second. When Bevilacqua, Bennett and Fry all dropped out of the race, the media was quick to announce that they were backing Rae. What the media failed to recognize that individuals who supported these candidates did not follow them to the Rae camp, and nearly all of them immediately declared support for Ignatieff. If this trend continues, a Dion or a Kennedy could take their support to Rae, but their delegates may go to Ignatieff.

A famous story about this type of occurrence took place in 1968. Allan MacEachen dropped of the ballot after the first ballot and took his support to Trudeau, with him came a couple of good friends and relatives. His delegates went to support fellow Nova Scotian, Robert Winters, giving him the support he needed to place second on the following ballot.